Indeed, it has been a hot
and dry summer. My records, based on Environment Canada data, show 20 daytime
highs of 30 Celsius or higher and an average daytime high of 26 C.
I worry that more lie ahead,
and they will be hotter and drier (or wetter depending on where you live).
This year is on course to
become the 42nd consecutive year with global temperatures above the
20th century average. Sixteen of the warmest years on record for the
globe have occurred in the last 17 years.
This is not a simple freak
event of nature, a natural climate fluctuation. This a sustained warming. The planet’s
average surface air temperature has risen almost two degrees Fahrenheit over
the last 115 years.
Scientists say the warming
is continuing and that more frequent and more intense extreme high temperatures
are a certainty. So are extreme precipitation events that include floods and
droughts.
New scientific studies say
that the next five years will be abnormally warm, perhaps extremely so, and we
should be preparing ourselves for a new normal in terms of chaotic weather.
We already have had a
glimpse of what a new normal could bring. This year our newscasts have been
filled with shocking video clips of cars floating down city streets, funnel
clouds wiping out neighbourhoods and forest fires creating scenes from Hell.
If the scientists are
correct, and they often are, our future daily news diets will contain even more
dramatic reports.
You don’t have to believe or
not believe in global warming. Just observe what is happening and think about what
more weather turmoil will mean to our lives. Encourage politicians to prepare
to deal with more weather disasters.
Our economy, our agriculture,
our drinking water, and our health already are being affected. Studies have
shown a worldwide increase in respiratory problems and deaths during abnormal
heat events. (Roughly 100 Quebeckers died during heat waves in that province
this summer).
The socioeconomic effects of
changing climate are not hard to imagine, and like with everything else, the
poor and underprivileged will suffer first and most.
There is plenty of evidence
of the Arctic melting and the oceans rising. The global average sea level is
seven to eight inches higher than it was in 1900. Almost one-half of that rise
has occurred since 2000 and some scientists do not rule out a further rise of up
to eight feet over the next 80 years.
Such a catastrophic rise
would wipe out some major coastal communities. Kiss those Florida beach
vacations goodbye Snowbirds?
This long-term global
warming, how it might affect our lives and how we need to prepare deserves some
deep thinking.
In the meantime, the
immediate concern of many of us is what the coming fall and winter will be
like.
Climate models show there is
a 60 per cent chance of us getting an El Niño effect this fall. El Niño years see
a warming of the Pacific Ocean, which often leads to warm wet conditions across
North America. La Niña years see a cooling of the Pacific and generally a
worldwide cooling.
The World Meteorological Association (WMO) says the La
Niña now fading was the warmest in history. That should have meant a cooler
summer but this one is likely to be one of the warmest.
WMO also says
there is a 70 per cent chance that we will have a 2018-2019 El Niño winter.
That could mean milder temperatures winter with periods of rainfalls, instead
of snow.
All the scientific stuff
indicates that while the planet is getting warmer we still will have cold
winters with colder-than-normal spells. The heat will return, however, with
summers getting progressively hotter.
Last winter showed some of
that pattern. Some bitterly cold days, especially in December, followed by
milder temperatures.
There also were what appeared
to be more days of rain last winter. Environment Canada readings for the
Minden-Haliburton region show it rained at least a bit on 29 days last winter.
It snowed on 55 days.
It is too early for any reasonably
accurate predictions for the coming winter. Meanwhile there is plenty of heat
and humidity to enjoy, or not, before then.
No comments:
Post a Comment