Bugs and the End of Life

The bug season is well beyond the coming winter, so it’s safe to write about what wonderful creatures insects are. They do wonderful things for us; pollinate our food crops and flowers, feed the birds, control pests, consume our waste and give us useful things like silk and beeswax.

The most useful thing they are doing now is forecasting the end of life on earth as we know it. They are warning us that we likely are witnessing the earth’s sixth mass extinction.

“Insects make up about two-thirds of all life on Earth [but] there has been some kind of horrific decline,” Dave Goulson, a prominent British biologist was quoted in The Guardian newspaper last month. “We appear to be making vast tracts of land inhospitable to most forms of life, and are currently on course for ecological Armageddon. If we lose the insects, everything is going to collapse.”

That type of talk sounds laughable to anyone who spends time in Haliburton County during May and June. Outside can be a nightmare at that time of year as the blackflies emerge, followed by the mosquitoes, deer flies, horse flies, sand flies, gnats and a variety of No-See-Ums.

Yet even in the land of bug abundance there is speculative evidence that some species are disappearing. Black flies are far less frequent than they were 20 years ago.

If you want to collect evidence of your own, pay attention to your auto windshield next spring. Truckers in developed countries have reported fewer windshield bug splatters in recent years.

Various studies around the world are reporting major declines in insect populations.

One German study conducted over 27 years reported recently that flying insect populations in parts of that country have declined by 75 per cent. The latest State of Nature report by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds suggests that United Kingdom insect populations have declined 59 per cent since 1970.

We don’t give insects much thought because they do not appear to have any purpose except to irritate us. The only bugs that receive much human concern are honey bees and Monarch butterflies.

Also, the pesticide industry is a $50 billion a year business that spreads money around governments and elected officials to receive favourable attention and lessened scrutiny.

Insects make up about 70 per cent of all earth’s animal species. Roughly 80 per cent of all wild plants rely on insects for pollination and 60 per cent of birds rely upon them for food.

Certainly insects can be harmful and destructive. Think emerald ash borer and other nasty bugs that are sickening our forests. Or, malaria and West Nile, diseases that are a curse on humanity.

But we must balance our thinking about bugs. The dangers of insect population declines are serious because bugs are critical to ecosystems that sustain overall life on earth. We need more awareness of the ecological importance of diverse and abundant insect populations.

Back in 1992, a group of 1,700 scientists from around the world issued a warning that humans had pushed ecosystems to the breaking point that could ruin life on the planet.

Now 15,000 scientists from 184 countries have issued a follow-up to mark the 25^th anniversary of the 1992 warning.

"Humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse," says the follow-up warning. "Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory."

There is hope, however, that a sixth mass extinction can be prevented. Decisive action on chlorofluorocarbons, the chemicals found in aerosol cans, refrigerators and air conditioners, has shrunk the dangerous hole in the earth’s protective ozone layer.

"The rapid global decline in ozone depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively," says the follow-up from the world’s scientists.

We can act decisively by learning more about what is happening in the insect world and how it affects us. Because if the decline of insect populations is a sign that a sixth mass extinction is underway, we need to worry that humanity might be one of the species that does not survive it.

Email: shaman@vianet.ca
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Come December

December looms on the late November horizon, leaving us wondering how it will treat us this year. Will it be cruel or will it be kind? It has been both in recent years.

Last December was a brute. It was slightly warmer than average but it snowed 27 of 31 days in Haliburton County. Snowfall totalled 134 centimetres, more than twice the average for December.

The year before that - 2015 - was extremely kind. It snowed on only 12 of the 31 December days, and measurable snow was recorded on the ground on only seven days because average temperatures were well above normal.

There is some evidence that this December will not be so gentle.

Expect "a wild ride from start to finish,” the Weather Network said in its Canadian winter forecast released this week. There will be changeable weather patterns featuring extended periods of “high impact weather.”

“High impact weather” is not defined but I translate it to mean rain and freezing rain one week, monster snowfalls the next, then a couple of days of bone shattering cold. A truly genuine mix of miserable winter weather.

Ontario, says The Weather Network, can expect above average snowfall and near normal temperatures.

That forecast follows early predictions by the Canadian Farmer’s Almanac. It predicts much ice, cold and snow for Ontario this winter. Snowfall will be above normal and cold below normal with some places going as low as minus 40 Celsius.

The Almanac says it has 80 to 85 per cent accuracy in its forecasts, except in El Nino years of which 2018 is not one.

Environment Canada, which hedges its bets in statistical gobbledygook and scientific language, appears to be forecasting colder than average temperatures and above average snowfall. 

Generally, this year’s winter forecasts have been hedged and as varied as a pot luck dinner menu. The reason is that forecasters are uncertain how water temperatures on the Great Lakes will affect Ontario’s winter.

Lake Huron temperatures were below average during an unusually wet and cool summer. That changed quickly, however, with a sunny, warm autumn. Lake Huron’s surface temperature was close to 22 Celsius in late October and has remained above normal.

Warm surface water on Lake Huron can bring lake-effect snow to Muskoka and Haliburton. Cold, dry air picks up heat and moisture when it passes over the warm lake surface, creating bands of lake-effect snow.

The warmer the water and the colder the air, the more intense the lake-effect snow bands become.

December is an ideal month for lake-effect snow storms because the lake surface is still warm relative to the colder air passing over them. Extremely cold weather freezes the water, obscuring the moisture and heat and making it difficult for lake-effect snow to develop.

Lake-effect snow bands are long and narrow, averaging six kilometres in width and stretching 50 to 400 kilometres in length.

Wind speed often determines how far a lake-effect snow band stretches. Weak winds usually see the snow falling along Lake Huron’s shorelines and into western Muskoka. Strong winds can bring it into Haliburton County.

The good news is that when winds are exceptionally strong they pass over the lake’s surface too quickly for snow bands to form.

No matter what the weather gives us this December, one thing is certain: Lake-effect snowstorms are going to be an increasing factor in our winter lives.

Annual average ice cover on the Great Lakes has declined 71 per cent in the last 40 years, says the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Centre (GLISA) based in Michigan. Total annual precipitation increased in the Great Lakes region by 11 per cent during the same period.

The centre also says average temperatures in the Great Lakes region have increased two degrees Fahrenheit (1.1C) since 1900.

For anyone who wants to compare this December’s weather as it moves along, here are some statistical averages:

The average high December for Haliburton County is minus 1.5 Celsius. The average low minus 12.5C. The record high for December was 14.5 C recorded on Dec. 5, 2001. The record low was minus 38.5 recorded December 27, 1993. The average December snowfall is 59 centimetres.

Email: shaman@vianet.ca
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Silence of the Birds

I am in my deer hunting stand, watching and wondering. Wondering where they all have gone.

Not the deer. I am beyond the days of anxiety over seeing a taggable deer. I am just content being here, soaking up the forest sounds and sights.

My wondering is about the birds. Each November that I sit in this stand there seem to be fewer birds.

Today there are no noisy Jays flashing by, squawking and shrieking their concern about my presence. No chickadees flitting nervously, trying to decide whether to get closer to see if I have anything to eat. Not even a patrolling crow or raven croaking a warning about my presence as it passes overhead en route to doing whatever crows and ravens do early in the morning.

I am certain that the numbers of birds in the forest I hunt are declining every year. I have zero scientific evidence to support that, just my own observations and my gut feelings.

Years ago I used to see flocks of grosbeaks and finches at my lake home. The blue jays always were around in numbers, especially if you tossed out a handful for peanuts. There also were some more exotic breeds, like the cardinals, and the warbling vireo whose constant song drove me crazy at dawn and dusk.

Partridge (ruffed grouse) used to be especially abundant. Now there are so few that I won’t hunt them, despite the fact that they are one of my favourite foods.

Certainly there are many studies that support my gut feeling about declining bird populations in general.

A Partners in Flight study from last year says that there are one billion fewer continental birds today than there were 40 years ago. That study was done by a coalition of activists, academics and government agencies in Canada and the United States.

The State of North America’s Birds 2016 reports that 37 per cent of all North American bird species require urgent action to save them from extinction. There is moderate concern for the future of another 49 per cent.

The Red List published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) includes 1,227 world bird species threatened by extinction – 192 of them critically endangered.

Older Canadian studies say that Canadian breeding bird populations declined 12 per cent between 1970 and 2010. The biggest declines were among birds that migrate, and those travelling the greatest distance showing the biggest declines.

Forty-four per cent of all Canadian bird species have declined while 33 per cent have increased and 23 per cent have stayed constant. Arctic shore birds have been particularly hard hit as have aerial insectivores such as swallows and other birds that catch insects in flight. Their numbers are declining faster than any other group of birds but no one seems to know the reason.

A main reason that there are fewer birds in many countries is habitat loss. Much forest and grassland habitat throughout the world is going to agriculture. Logging continues to reduce bird homelands.

Pollution from toxic spills, pesticides, chemicals and heavy metals remains a major factor against bird life despite our efforts to be more environmentally conscious. Many toxic pesticides and harmful chemicals banned or controlled in North America still are freely used in other parts of the world.

Human activity is a major factor in bird kills. Collisions with buildings, power lines and vehicles kill an estimated 900 million birds a year in Canada and the U.S. Cats, feral and domestic, kill another 2.6 billion a year.

We don’t know much about how climate change has affected bird populations. More frequent, stronger storms already are being seen and will impact bird migrations. Coastal flooding might destroy habitat and food opportunities in long-established stopover areas.

Mass Audubon, a Massachusetts conservation society, has climate change projections showing that 43 per cent of species it evaluated are highly vulnerable to climate change over the next 30 years.

There is some good news about bird populations - Canadian waterfowl numbers have been increasing. So have raptors. This is attributable to better wetlands and hunting management and pesticide controls.

This gives hope that with more awareness and more dedicated action, population declines in other species are reversible.

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No safe distance

One bug season ends, another begins. The one just begun is one to be concerned about.

The late autumn-winter flu bug season already is showing evidence that it will be more severe than usual.

Australia’s winter flu season is just ending with the most laboratory-confirmed flu infections in the last 25 years. Some 222,000 cases were confirmed there this year, more than two and one-half times the number last year. As of mid-October, 504 flu patients had died, Australia’s health department reported.

This year’s main flu culprit is A(H3N2). It hits older people hardest.

There is no such thing as a safe distance in today’s world and Australia’s outbreak will be seen elsewhere. Early surveillance shows above normal Canadian flu activity already and the majority of cases are A(H3N2).

Flu statistics in most places, Canada included, are notoriously unreliable. Our federal  government says tens of thousands of Canadians fall ill from the flu every year and thousands die from its complications. However, its figures are pulled out of guesswork.

Most of us who contract the flu do not go to hospital so no one knows how many get it. All anybody knows is how many people are hospitalized with influenza and how many confirmed deaths there have been.

Last year there were roughly 5,300 flu hospitalizations in Canada and 331 confirmed deaths.

We should pay less attention to the numbers and focus on the future threats of influenza, notably the possibility of a pandemic. Many respected medical agencies and medical minds believe we are overdue for a pandemic that will kill tens of thousands, even millions, depending on how we prepare for it.

A virus capable of igniting pandemic already is circulating. It is a bird flu named H7N9 that has mutated to enable itself to jump from birds to humans. In one study, 88 percent of people infected with H7N9 got pneumonia, and 41 percent died.

What that strain cannot do yet is transmit easily from person to person. Researchers believe that could change. If it does, and if the strain retains its potency during mutation, we will have a pandemic in which millions die.

H7N9 is ranked by the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as the flu bug with the most potential to cause a devastating worldwide outbreak.

This winter and spring will mark the 100th anniversary of the greatest pandemic of modern times – the Spanish flu. That flu, misnamed because it did not begin in Spain, killed an estimated 40 to 50 million people worldwide.

It travelled to Canada with troops coming back from the First World War. It spread rapidly, reaching deep into the nation, including remote areas. Quebec and Labrador were particularly hard hit.

An estimated 30,000 to 50,000 Canadians died. The disastrous outbreak led to the formation of the federal department of health in 1919.

The death rate for a usual influenza is only a fraction of one per cent. The death rate for the Spanish flu worldwide was 2.5 per cent and it particularly attacked and killed young adults. Researchers calculated that life expectancy in the United States fell to 39 years of age from 51 during the 1918-19 pandemic.

This year’s flu shot will not prevent takers from getting the flu. Health authorities say, however, that it should lessen the severity and keep people out of hospital.

Much has been written to describe our annual influenzas and how we live, and die, with them. One of my favourite descriptions is my own, written in the opening to my 2006 book Killer Flu: The World on the Brink of A Pandemic.

“Influenza is like the village madman. He prowls the shadows of our communities, emerging occasionally to disrupt our lives and hurt relatively small groups of people.

“Once every few decades, he runs screaming into the streets maiming and killing in much larger numbers. We fear him during these insane episodes, but we know we are incapable of killing him, or even banishing him. So when he returns to the shadows, we nervously accept his presence as a distressing part of the life cycle, and then try to forget him.”

Email: shaman@vianet.ca
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