A Return to 'Normal' Winter?

So, winter returns to normal this weekend. Sort of.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to be below the ‘normal’ of minus five starting this weekend. Overnight lows will drop into the minus 10 to 15 ‘normal’ range.

Those forecast temperatures, although freezing and much more wintery than the past two weeks, will not a normal winter make.

The normals used by weather reporting agencies are deceiving because they are based on only the last 30 years of data. Thirty years takes us back to the later 1980s, when global warming began to become significantly noticeable. Before the 1980s, Haliburton County had harsher, more traditional winters.

 
Up in this part of the country the only place they now record that information is at Muskoka airport and Bancroft. At Muskoka, the record keeping is hit and miss. In December, Muskoka missed recording its weather on 12 days. So far in January, it has missed four days.

“What’s going on in the Arctic is really very impressive; this year was ridiculously off the chart,” Gavin A. Schmidt, head of a unit of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration that tracks global temperatures, said in the New York Times recently.

These wild changes in the Arctic climate will continue to impact us, notably in late winter. Forecasts done in the U.S. call for warmer than usual weather this coming February and March.

Our local 14-day forecast calls for highs and lows in the minus six to minus 15 range. So far, no bursts of huge cold or heavy snowfalls are forecast.

That doesn’t mean that we should expect a balmy ride into spring. Arctic cold fronts will continue to appear, bringing those bitter cold February and March days that were so common in the past. However, predictions are that we will see more milder days than usual in the coming weeks.

So far the changing climate in our part of the world has not been devastating. This winter’s snowmobile season has not been the best, but it has not been a washout. This weekend’s return to colder temperatures should help to improve trails.

Also, the ski season has had a good start with plenty of early snow.
Weather forecasting has become progressively more accurate. The same cannot be said for weather recording.

Environment Canada continues to cut back its historical weather record keeping. That’s the info that tells you the temperatures and precipitation amounts on each day of the month.

Bancroft has done much better, not missing any days.

Trying to figure out snowfall amounts has been almost impossible since Environment Canada stopped reporting snow depth on the ground. It now simply records daily total precipitation, rain or snow, in millimeters.

Climate change still is denied, or explained away, by too many people including The Trumpeter, now Narcissist-in-Chief of the United States. He says climate change is a hoax perpetrated by China to make the U.S. less competitive.

However, the changeable winters we have seen in recent years are increasingly explained by scientific data. Of the 17 hottest years in earth’s recorded history, sixteen have occurred since 2000. Last year was our planet’s third consecutive warmest year in recorded history.

There is more warmth and more change to come and we should be prepared for it.

There seems to be pattern developing in our part of world. Cool air moving over warm open waters, bringing heavy snowfalls at the start of winter. Then January thaws increasingly warmer and longer than in the past.

February and March winter conditions seem to have been less severe in recent times. Again, there is some scientific study to explain that and to indicate that even milder late winters are coming.

A new study by Princeton University researchers says that northern latitudes can expect more mild weather days. And, areas in the more southern latitudes can expect fewer mild weather days, which are defined as pleasant outdoor days with fewer heat extremes and less precipitation.

All this is tied to dramatic changes in the Arctic where temperatures are said to be rising more quickly than other parts of the planet.

Temperatures last autumn were 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in parts of the Arctic waters.

Email: shaman@vianet.ca
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I Scooped the Washington Press Corps

You read it here first!

Through fantastic reporting, I have obtained Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration speech. Obviously I can’t reveal how I got it, except to say that brilliant reporting was involved.

So while the entire world waits with eyeballs glued to televisions you, dear readers, have the speech now. Here it is:

My Fellow Americans. And, of course, your lovely ladies as well.

Happy 2017 to all, including to my many enemies and those who have fought me and lost so badly they just don’t know what to do. Sad! Very sad!

Welcome to you fans who have come from all corners to witness this historic day. Great people out there. Like Vlad Putin, in the second row, He’s a great guy and his girlfriend Alina Kabaeva has great legs.

Vlad is a leader. You know, unlike what we have in this country.

One thing, though. He is not as good looking as me.  I mean do I look like a president? How handsome am I, right? How handsome? You betcha!

           

I think it’s important that I say something never said here before: Many scores and years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Well, they got that wrong! Nobody is created equal. You have to know the right people and work the dollars to get that way.

I’m going to work at making a lot more people more equal. Nobody can do it better than me.

I have a great temperament for getting that done. My temperament is very good, very calm. Everything I’ve done virtually has been a tremendous success. In fact everything I have done actually has been tremendous.

I’m going to help the poor, because they need a lot of help. I mean if they have been poor for so many generations, how smart can they be? Basically they are morons and they need help.

I’m also going to do foreign affairs. Foreign affairs, without the help of the State Department. The level of stupidity there is incredible. I'm telling you, I used to use the word incompetent. Now I just call them stupid.

I’ll be consulting myself a lot. Speaking with myself – No. 1 – because I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things.

I’ve already seen how our free trade is terrible. Free trade can be wonderful if you have smart people. But we have stupid people.

There has been a bunch of snivelling about having too many rich men, and too few women, in my administration.

I want to make clear that I cherish women. I want to help women. I’m going to be able to do things for women that no one else could do. They are going to love it.

(Pause as the President summons an aide to bring him a pair of ear muffs).

That feels better. I didn’t want my ears to get frostbitten on my first day as president.

You know all this global warming talk was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive. Now any and all weather events are used by the global warming hoaxsters to justify higher taxes to save our planet!

And of course there’s the carbon footprint thing and the hole in the ozone thing. They say, don't use hair spray, it's bad for the ozone. I want to use hair spray. I’ve got a fantastic head of hair and I want to keep it in place. What’s more important, my hair or the ozone?

Hey, it really is getting cold outside. I see Hillary sitting out there in Row 236 and can hear her teeth chattering. She’ll warm up when we get her locked up.

So that’s about it. I want to cut this short because it really is getting cold. Half the country is in a deep freeze. It’s a major freeze. Weeks ahead of normal.

Our planet is freezing. Record low temps, and our scientists are stuck in ice.

Man, we could use a big fat dose of global warming!

Catch ya on Twitter!

Email: shaman@vianet.ca

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At the Cash-for-Access Party

A courier arrived at my door and handed me an envelope embossed with the Canadian coat of Arms. You know, the one with the scowling lion and a silly unicorn, each holding a flag.

I tore it open and found an elaborate card, embossed with gold JPJT lettering, inviting Mr. Po Ling to a Cash-for-Access party.

I had no idea who JPJT was, and there seemed to be some confusion about my name. But a party is a party so I rummaged the basement for my tweed suit, knitted tie and the pork pie hat I wore when I was a young reporter.

I arrived at the party site, a castle-like mansion in a leafy Toronto neighbourhood. The place looked like it cost $20 million so I assumed it was owned by an offshore drug lord, or a baseball player.

Inside, I presented the invitation and entered a huge reception room tightly packed with knots of chatting people. A cloud of sweet smelling smoke hung over the room and I saw a guy circulating with a silver tray stacked with what appeared to be hand-rolled cigarettes.

“That’s Billy Blair, the former Toronto police chief,” I muttered to myself. Billy now is the prime minister’s dope czar. He looked a bit foggy, but then he looked that way even when he was chief.

He approached me with an offering but I declined and walked to the bar, trying to decide whether to order a Perrier and water, or a beer.  

“I’ll have a Molson Canadian,” I told the bartender.

The bartender scanned my tweeds and pork pie hat with a good deal of disdain, then sniffed:

“The prime minister has asked that tonight’s guests be offered Chantereines Blanc de Blancs Grand Cru.”

“Whatever,” I said. “I can knock back those craft brews just as quickly as a Molson.”

I wandered about sipping my Grand Cru and watching the people. I heard some giggling from a knot of folks gathered in a corner.

I sauntered over and saw Jane Philpott, the federal health minister, talking animatedly, her head wreathed in smoke.

“The opioid overdose epidemic will disappear as soon as we get the weed legalization bill through Parliament,” she giggled, taking a pull from her rollie.

“Yes,” one listener nodded enthusiastically. “And, you will be getting taxes from all that dope, which will mean you won’t have to raise our taxes as the prime minister has suggested.”

I spotted the prime minister in a group gathered in another corner. He was wearing one of those satin smoking jackets guys wear in Turner Classic Movies re-runs. The front of the jacket was embroidered with the large letters JPJT, which I now realized stood for Justin Pierre James Trudeau.

“We need to increase your taxes just a tad,” JPJT was telling the group, “to help the middle class pay their electricity bills. When they are back on their feet, we increase their taxes again, allowing us to reduce yours. It’s a fantastic plan. We’re gonna make Canada rich again.”

“Fantastic!” said one of the billionaires in the group as he raised his glass of Grand Cru. “Here’s to sunny ways and tax-free days!”

“Oh I almost forgot,” said another, pulling out a cheque book. “I have that $50,000 donation to help build the statue of your dear old dad.”

“And here’s my 200 grand for the Trudeau Foundation,” said another.

Suddenly I found myself dragged toward the front door by two large goons wearing Mountie hats. The front doors of the mansion flew open and I was propelled down the stairs, arms and legs flailing in every direction.

“Jim. Jim,” I heard a distance voice calling. “Jim, you are having a nightmare.”

I opened my eyes to see my wife shaking me by the shoulders.

I realized I had fallen asleep reading. I took the book from my lap and opened it at where I left off.

The book was Orwell’s Animal Farm and I was at the scene where Benjamin the donkey is observing the changes to the new society’s commandments painted on the barn wall. Only one commandment remained and it had been edited to read:

 ALL ANIMALS ARE EQUAL
BUT SOME ANIMALS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS

Email: shaman@vianet.ca
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